The conversion of analogue to digital processes that is experienced in everyday reality, with online banking, digital medical prescriptions, the proliferation of teleworking and the dissemination of e-learning, is gaining greater speed every day as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, maintains the latest report from the Center for Studies of the New Economy (CENE) of the University of Belgrano.

"As happens in any crisis, there will be winners and losers. The winners will be the sectors of the new economy based on knowledge, information technologies and robotization. The losers will be those of the old economy, based on the in-person use of human resources. While Netflix, Facebook and Google are the big winners of the global quarantine, General Motors and Ford are practically paralyzed," explains Víctor Beker, director of CENE.

These trends are clearly manifested in the economic activity of our country. In fact, the latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) carried out by the Central Bank estimates a contraction in economic activity of -10.4% for the second quarter and -7.4% for the year as a whole. In parallel, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a drop of 5.7% for our country.
“The consequences on the Argentine economy are not only identified in the strong contraction of the internal market but are also projected on the components of production and demand, which generates dynamic deteriorations for the economic structure,” observes Martín Calveira, in the most recent report from the Department of Economics of the IAE of the Universidad Austral.

The economist points out that, among the sectors that relatively explain the contraction in monthly activity, the falls in construction and the manufacturing industry stand out above all. But also, transportation and communications, in addition to commerce, which in March alone had fallen by 11.2%.

“This creates a structurally negative scenario in the short and medium term, since sharp falls in activity not only generate losses in income and consumption, but also deteriorate the entire productive structure, due to the divergence generated between the need to sustain basic income and the need for production and investment in order to interrupt the process of decreasing the supply of goods and services in the domestic economy,” he points out.
The other side of the coin is offered by e-commerce, whose turnover grew by no less than 84% in April compared to an average month in the first quarter, as reported by the Argentine Chamber of Electronic Commerce (CACE), based on a study by the consulting firm Kantar. It did so thanks to a 38% increase in purchase orders and a 71% increase in units sold.

The thing is, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, e-commerce became a great alternative for users to purchase products online and safely, while staying at home. In this sense, many consumers made their purchases of essential goods through this channel and little by little they were incorporating new product categories.

In the results of the study, in fact, two well-marked stages can be observed. As of April 20, when retail sales through electronic commerce are enabled for all items, growth accelerates with an increase of 111% in billing, 54% in purchase orders and 87% in products sold compared to an average fortnight in the first quarter of 2020, the survey indicates.
"These results confirm that electronic commerce in Argentina has advanced the equivalent of two years in the last six weeks, both in supply and demand. This means that thousands of people and companies bought and sold for the first time in its history, strongly increasing the volume of operations planned for this time of year. The study reveals that more than 36% of the purchase orders in each store belong to new buyers. In this way, e-commerce is increasingly taking center stage and has a fundamental role in the economy. Argentina,” emphasizes Gustavo Sambucetti, institutional director of CACE.

The growth deepened in companies that sell essential products and that never interrupted their operations. In those cases, billing was 149% higher than an average fortnight in the first quarter. Additionally, an increase of 103% in purchase orders and 182% in products sold was highlighted.

Once the retail sale of non-essential goods through e-commerce was enabled, this boosted purchases in other categories. Among them, a strong increase in clothing and technology stood out. In this regard, billing in companies that sell electronic products grew by 272% compared to an average fortnight in the first quarter. Additionally, there was a 216% growth in purchase orders and a 225% growth in the number of units sold.